Shimla: Himachal Pradesh’s Total Fertility Rate (TFR) has fallen to 1.6 children per woman, according to the National Family Health Survey (NFHS-6) 2023-24, placing the state significantly below the replacement-level fertility rate of 2.1 and below India’s national average. The decline reflects a long-term demographic transition that is reshaping not only Himachal Pradesh but also much of India.
The survey shows that Himachal Pradesh’s TFR has declined from 1.9 in NFHS-5 (2019-21) to 1.6 in NFHS-6. Urban areas recorded an even lower fertility rate of 1.1, while rural areas stood at 1.6. The figures indicate that women in the state are having fewer children than previous generations, continuing a trend that has been visible across several developed and economically advanced Indian states.
What is total efrtility rate (TFR) ?
Total Fertility Rate refers to the average number of children a woman is expected to have during her reproductive years, assuming current age-specific fertility patterns remain unchanged.
Demographers use TFR as one of the most important indicators for understanding population growth, ageing and future workforce trends. A higher fertility rate generally leads to population growth, while a lower rate eventually slows population growth and can lead to population decline if sustained over a long period.
What is replacement-level fertility?
The replacement-level fertility rate is generally considered to be 2.1 children per woman. This is the level at which a population replaces itself from one generation to the next without migration.
The extra 0.1 child accounts for infant mortality, child mortality and the fact that not every child survives to reproductive age. When fertility remains consistently below 2.1, each generation becomes smaller than the previous one, eventually leading to population ageing and, in the long run, population decline.
At 1.6, Himachal Pradesh is substantially below this threshold.
How does Himachal compare with India?
While Himachal Pradesh’s fertility rate stands at 1.6, India’s fertility rate has also fallen below replacement level. Recent government and UN-backed estimates place India’s TFR at around 1.9, marking the first time the country as a whole has moved below the replacement threshold.
This means Himachal Pradesh is ahead of the national trend and is experiencing demographic transition more rapidly than the country as a whole.
The decline is being driven by factors such as higher female education, greater access to contraception, delayed marriages, urbanisation, increasing workforce participation among women and rising costs associated with raising children. These factors have historically been associated with declining fertility across the world.
What happens when fertility falls too low?
A declining fertility rate is not necessarily a negative development. In fact, lower fertility is often associated with improved healthcare, better educational attainment, greater gender equality and higher household incomes.
However, when fertility remains significantly below replacement level for decades, new challenges emerge.
Fewer births today mean fewer young people entering the workforce tomorrow. Over time, the proportion of elderly citizens increases while the working-age population shrinks. This places greater pressure on healthcare systems, pension schemes and social welfare programmes.
NFHS-6 already points toward this transition in Himachal Pradesh. The share of the state’s population aged 60 years and above has risen to 16.4%, while the proportion of children below 15 years has declined.
How’s situation globally
Several developed countries are already dealing with the consequences of prolonged low fertility.
Countries such as Japan, South Korea, Italy and Germany have struggled with ageing populations, labour shortages and shrinking workforces after decades of fertility rates remaining below replacement level. South Korea’s fertility rate has fallen below 1 child per woman in recent years, one of the lowest levels recorded globally. International agencies project that many countries will continue to experience low fertility through the coming decades.
India remains far younger than these countries, but states such as Himachal Pradesh, Kerala and Tamil Nadu are beginning to encounter similar demographic patterns.
Experts caution against interpreting low fertility rates as an immediate crisis. Population momentum means that India and Himachal Pradesh will continue to have substantial populations for decades.
For policymakers, the more important challenge is preparing for an ageing society. This includes investing in geriatric healthcare, expanding social security systems, increasing labour-force participation and ensuring that a smaller future workforce remains highly productive.
FAQs on Himachal Pradesh Fertility Rate and NFHS-6
According to NFHS-6 (2023-24), the Himachal Pradesh fertility rate is 1.6 children per woman, down from 1.9 in NFHS-5. This places the state well below the replacement-level fertility rate of 2.1.
Total Fertility Rate (TFR) of 1.6 means that, on average, women in Himachal Pradesh are having fewer children than needed to replace the population over time. If this trend continues, it could lead to population ageing and a smaller workforce in the future.
The India fertility rate is estimated at around 1.9, while Himachal Pradesh’s fertility rate is 1.6. This indicates that the state is experiencing demographic transition faster than the national average.
Experts attribute the decline in the Himachal Pradesh fertility rate to factors such as higher female education, better access to family planning, delayed marriages, urbanisation, increased employment opportunities for women and rising child-rearing costs.
Long-term effects of low fertility rates in India and Himachal Pradesh may include an ageing population, increased healthcare and pension costs, labour shortages and slower population growth. However, lower fertility is also associated with improved education, healthcare and economic development.
